The Denver Broncos enter 2024 with six selections in the NFL draft, including the No. 12 overall pick. The draft is always important, but this year, it’ll be even more so for the Broncos.

The Broncos are already projected to be over the salary cap by $30 million, according to Over The Cap. If the Broncos release veteran quarterback Russell Wilson as a pre-June 1 cut, the team will incur a whopping $85 million in dead money on the salary cap, which would be an NFL single-season record.

If Wilson is tapped as a post-June 1 release, the Broncos would still be staring down the barrel of $35.4M in dead money just in 2024 alone. Considering how cap-strapped this team is, GM George Paton and head coach Sean Payton have to make the most of each one of those draft picks and really leave no stone unturned in the college free-agent ranks.

During his Tuesday end-of-season press conference, Paton emphasized how important this year’s draft is and reminded everyone how the Broncos like to stockpile draft picks. He even teased some potential trades to acquire more.

“Obviously, we have to hit on the draft,” Paton said. “We’re picking high, and we have six picks. We could have more. You know we like picks. We’ll go from there.”

The lack of cap space and the onerous impact of Wilson’s contract will preclude the Broncos from participating in the first wave of free agency this year, according to Paton. But the GM still expressed confidence that the Broncos will find the “flexibility” to make the necessary moves, thanks to the salary-cap voodoo that V.P. of football operations Rich Hurtado is able to conjure up.

“This would be extreme,” Paton said of the possible dead-cap ramifications of releasing Wilson. “We’ve prepared for any scenario with Rich Hurtado, who runs our [salary] cap. We’ll have flexibility either way to do what we need to do. We won’t be in on the first wave of free agency like we were last year. You can’t do that every year. We’ll be very strategic and very specific on what positions and what players we try to sign.”

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Outside of the NFL awarding a team with compensatory selections, the only way to acquire more draft picks is to make trades. The Broncos have several veteran candidates they could dangle on the stock market to stockpile more picks.

No doubt, Paton will hope the phone rings about Wilson, but the same albatross of a contract weighing down the Broncos’ salary cap will also smother any interest that might be there on the trade market. Plus, NFL teams know the Broncos have little choice but to release Wilson after his demotion came with some blowback, and likely soured the QB’s feelings toward the team.

Why would an NFL team give up draft picks or players for Wilson and take on that horrendous contract when he’s set to be a free agent sooner rather than later? It’s a rhetorical question, of course.

Broncos players under contract who could garner some trade interest around the NFL include left tackle Garett Bolles, Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons, wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, and… cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Paton went to great lengths to convey that he plans on keeping Surtain in a Broncos uniform for years to come, but of all the players with a modicum of trade value around the NFL, the young corner would definitely command the most in an exchange.

However, such a haul would certainly help in the Broncos’ effort to find a future franchise quarterback in the 2024 draft and fill roster holes with young talent. Payton moved the Broncos needle in Year 1, improving the team’s win total by three games year over year.

Cornerback is a cornerstone position, and the Broncos have a proven commodity. But it would take as much as two first-round picks, purportedly, to even pique Denver’s interest in dealing Surtain away.

But any future progress Payton could help create is being held hostage by the Broncos’ gaping hole at quarterback. The Russ experiment under Payton failed; at least, it seems that’s how the Broncos view it, even though the QB improved several key metrics in 2023, including his touchdown-to-interception ratio (26-to-8).

The Broncos lack the cap space firepower to solve the QB problem with a veteran. And that might be a tender mercy from the Football Gods because for too long the Broncos have tried to make hay with one reclamation project or stopgap after another under center.

Wilson has easily been Denver’s best quarterback since Peyton Manning hung up his cleats, but that’s a relative statement. Knowing that there’s no such thing as a free-agent franchise quarterback, the Broncos’ best and only hope is the 2024 draft and that No. 12 overall pick.

Depending on which QB prospect Payton decides is the best fit for his scheme, that No. 12 pick might put the Broncos within striking distance while still being on the outside looking in. Thus, we can’t rule out a trade-up in the draft this year.

After back-to-back years of having no first-round pick, thanks to the Wilson and Payton trades, respectively, the Broncos finally have one. But to move up into, say, the top-3 of the draft, Paton and Payton would have to be willing to mortgage the short-term future, as it would cost, at minimum, a 2025 first- and second-rounder (Broncos don’t have a 2024 round-two pick), plus this year’s day-one selection.

But if it landed the Broncos a bonafide answer at quarterback, the most important position in all of pro sports, for the next decade, Payton and company might view it as a small price to pay. The consensus top-three quarterbacks in the 2024 class are USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels.

If the Broncos plan to maneuver up the draft board, they will need to stockpile more picks, especially if the team hopes to fill some of its other pressing roster holes that still linger. It could be a very, very busy offseason for the Broncos.

On the subject of trading players for picks, Bolles and Simmons could be especially enticing as potential pieces as both veterans are entering the final year of their contracts. Sutton has two years left. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos extend all three players in order to free up immediate cap space.

Jeudy is an especially convenient candidate to be traded. All the stars align in that he’s a former first-rounder, ostensibly still has untapped potential, has shown signs of disgruntlement, and still could command value relative to his draft pedigree.

Stay tuned.