If Justin Fields is to be traded in the end, the Bears must hope it will be for maximum value.

What they would receive and what Bears fans might hope for could be two entirely different things.

There could be ways to see what Fields can fetch on the open market.

History
Sometimes the past can reveal trade value. It’s not easy to look at past trades of quarterbacks and get an idea on the return with Fields.

When the Eagles traded Carson Wentz, they got a third-round pick and a conditional pick that later proved to be a first-rounder. In hindsight that looks embarrassing for the Colts. It kind of looked embarrassing for them then, too.

When the Colts traded Wentz to the Commanders, it was a more complicated deal that also sent Washington a second-rounder and seventh-rounder for a second-pick five spots better, a third-rounder anad a conditional third-rounder in the next draft.

Fields’ passing statistics come up far short of Wentz’s for his first three years, even if you tack on his rushing yards as overall yards gained.

Baker Mayfield might be more comparable statistically to Fields for three years, as long as you throw in Fields’ rushing yardage as part of his total yards gained.

However, that’s not really a true example to follow because the Browns had already made the deal for Deshaun Watson and at that point they were doing everything they could to simply get rid of Mayfield. They received only a fifth-rounder in return from the Panthers. If the Bears drafted Williams first and still had Fields stuck on the roster, this would be a more pertinent comparison but that’s unlikely to occur.

Passing Stat Deficit
Working against a higher value for Fields are some very key numbers that plague him.

Fields had the worst sack percentage in the league among starters each of his first two years and improved to 10.6% in 2023 which was third worst behind Ryan Tannehill and Zach Wilson. It was very telling whether it was simply because of a poor offensive line when Tyson Bagent came in for 4 1/2 games. When Bagent’s time for playing had finished, he had the lowest sack percentage of all NFL QBs at 3.4%.
Fields continues to do a poor job of taking care of the football even though his interceptions dropped in his final seven games to just three, and two of those on Hail Mary throws. He has fumbled an NFL high of 38 times over the past three seasons.
In terms of passing, Fields’ completion percentage of 60.3% over three years in 10th worst among all QB starters for those years. It’s come up ever year but only by small amounts, from 58.9% to 60.4% and this year 61.4%

There were four NFL passers who started 13 games this season and Fields’ total of 2,562 yards was lowest among them by 275 yards.
His rushing yardage is a big plus but it dropped off from 76.2 yards a game in 2022 to 50.5 yards in 2023 and his yards per carry was a career low of 5.3.
Considering those numbers, talk the Bears could get a first-round pick for Fields definitely seems overly exuberant.

Unknown Edge
The Bears could find there is a better market for Fields because of their own inept attempt to develop him.

In other words, the Bears didn’t exactly do a very good job turning him into an effective passer and some teams may feel they can do better job of it.

They might draft him and fashion an offense around him catering to his specific skill set the way the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson. By hiring Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator, it’s apparent the Bears are more interested in building a Rams-style offense rather than a QB/runner athlete.

A team like this might bring the Bears a better return, possibly a first-rounder. Would the Steelers be sick and tired enough of chasing Jackson around enough to go out after their own athlete/quarterback type as a counter measure? They’ve got a later first-round pick if they want him.

Another team might think of Fields as a Steve Young type, who can work at his game and be resurrected later in his career. Seattle did this with Geno Smith.

In that case, any number of other teams could be interested in Fields. Teams with QBs already could be interested in acquiring him as a project.

The return for Fields to the Bears in a trade with a team like this would be low, though. Teams don’t want to pay for projects.

Who Would Want Him
The market is a determiner in most cases. If a large number of teams need passers, the Bears will get a higher asking price even for a QB whose greatest contribution has been as a runner. The supply is always limited.

For this reason Mel Kiper’s statement that the Bears could get a first-round pick for Fields seems very unlikely.

If there are few teams needing QBs, it will work the other way.

At this point, it would appear only a small group of teams are capable of making a deal for Fields to be their starter.

Washington, New England and the Bears are at the top of the draft and both the Commanders and Patriots have it within their means to replace their starting QBs with the draft’s top picks.

Atlanta, Las Vegas, Denver and Pittsburgh are teams who could consider it an upgrade to acquire Fields.

It would seem unlikely Atlanta is giving up the eighth pick of the draft for Fields with such a long list of negative statistics as baggage. Even if he is from Atlanta, the Falcons can’t be just giving out a top 10 pick for someone down in the passer rankings.

The same is probably true for most of the other QB-needy teams but Pittsburgh is drafting far enough back in Round 1 that it could consider doing this.

However, the Steelers still have first-round pick Kenny Pickett on the roster. He has been disappointing but can they really say he’s been so poor that they need to give up a first-round pick to acquire Fields?

They might even be better off using their 20th pick for one of the lower-ranked quarterbacks available in the draft than to take a chance on Fields.

Think Second-Rounder Instead
The Bears lack a second-round pick after trading for Montez Sweat and it would look like a good place to slot in a pick in a trade for Fields if they decide he’s to be traded. The Raiders (44th), Falcons (43rd) and Steelers (51st) all have second-round picks.

There are other teams that could come into play at that point, if they determine Fields is a better option than their starter or if they lose their starter in free agency. Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Seattle could all be teams on the look out.

The likelihood of a first-round pick for Fields seems remote with the draft class and with a free agency group that includes Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill and Joe Flacco.

There could be fewer teams willing to take a chance with a second-round pick or better that they can turn Fields into a more viable passing threat than he has been in Chicago.